You can overthink this stuff. Even when you do well, or badly, the tendency to attribute results to certain things can get out of control. Luck remains a wild card aspect of fishing. I do look for changes in how the water moves and try to remember any conditions that I perceived. Certainly, if you get a bump doing a certain thing, you should do it again. I have some pet go-tos like floater Rebels and Pikies. The pikie knocks the balls off them.
If you read my first book, "Twenty Years ...." you know that the bottle plug, aka Gibbs Swimmer, is kind of a dog.