Originally Posted by Francis Daignault
Joe, you forgot the management BS. How are you going to count the fish in the ocean with even a moderate level of accuracy? Conservation is an industry. Thankfully, Stripers Unlimited is kaput. Boy, could I tell you some stories.
I know you understand the Standard Deviation model. It would tell you among other things that when it comes to sampling, a sample of 2,000 will give you a reasonably accurate result for a population of 2,000,000. Somewhat similar to how the ASMFC scientists arrive at population sizes. The problem with the ASMFC numbers is that they can't account for recreational take and have no idea what the poaching count is. They also change the sampling locations every once in a blue moon opting for a known, more productive site than the one they had been using which has, over time, become less productive. In other words, they have "managed the 350 or so sites under pressure from various interests. So the numbers are suspect but the lack of fish inshore, length of the season, inability in some areas of the commercial guys to hit their quotas, fill their tags etc. tells us all that something is very wrong with the population. The main argument I hear at the few meetings I have attended is that all the fish are now off shore beyond the 3 mile limit. Almost every honest captain I have ever met told me those fish were there when the inshore population was robust.