Home
 
     HOME     ARTICLES     Frank DAIGNAULT     TROPHY RIGS     CONTENTS     FAQs     FLY FISHING     OFF ROAD 4 X 4     STRIPED BASS    SURFCASTING
 
Click for Daignault Biography Twenty Years Trophy Striper Striper Surf Striper Hot Spots MID-ATLANTIC Striper Hot Spots - NEW ENGLAND Eastern Tides Fly Fishing the Striper Surf
TWENTY YEARS ON THE CAPE - STRIPER SURF - STRIPER HOT SPOTS - THE TROPHY STRIPER
EASTERN TIDES - FLY FISHING THE STRIPER SURF
Welcome to Frank Daignault's "CASTS" - Center for Advanced Studies of Trophy Stripers.
Please be sure to read the Protocol and then join in!
 
 
Go Back   StriperSurf Forums > Main Forums > Ask Frank Daignault

Ask Frank Daignault Frank Daignault is recognized as an authority on surf fishing for striped bass. He is the author of six books and hundreds of magazine articles. Frank is a member of the Outdoor Writers of America and lectures throughout the Northeast.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 03-26-2014, 10:14 PM
Doug Doug is offline
SS/Veteran
 
Join Date: Feb 1999
Location: Fair Hill, MD
Posts: 1,387
Default Triple Crown Thread for 2014

The method of this spring run has changed since the advent of the point system for Kentucky Derby qualifying. It basically sucks from an old timer's view as now the "early" handicapping has been removed from the equation. There is no way to hide a horse now and you will never see a filly run for the Roses again.

Think of it in terms of surf fishing. Say the fishing spots you know to be the best at certain times in the spring are now closed, if you want to catch stripers you now have to fish in the few areas now open to fisherman, and these places are crowded and because every one knows the fish will be there it is more of a chore than a pleasure.

In spite of that I plod on as this is what I do, how I survive, "the why" can still be a question of (in)sanity.

Here we go,

http://www.gulfstreampark.com/racing...rby/contenders

with a tool that is just incredible if you ever handicapped races the old (hard) way. Video replay Past Performances, WOW!!!

Wildcat Red has a good chance to repeat since the competition is really weak other than 2 horses. As I said last year about Orb, the only chance Wildcat has to win the KD is to win this race. However, the running style is not going to do it and the horse does not have the numbers needed for the foundation (2 year old speed figures).

I would bet hard against this horse, Cairo Prince should win it, hard to say anyone else for second other than General Arod or Wildcat. this is certainly not the competitive kind of race (test) you like to see for a Big Gun prepping for the Roses.

Other than this race, it is really a waiting game to see who is qualified, from that bunch who decides to run, from that bunch it will be a crap shoot.

Good luck to all, I look forward to another "Equine Spring" as we plod the surf and the turf in quest of a "Large".

Doug
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 03-27-2014, 07:01 AM
Frank Daignault's Avatar
Frank Daignault Frank Daignault is offline
Writer, Hunter, Surfcaster
 
Join Date: Sep 1999
Location: Massachusetts
Posts: 30,458
Default Re: Triple Crown Thread for 2014

While this is not something I can contribute to in an appropriate way, I too look forward the runnings. We have a couple of pros here that will be all over this.
__________________
Frank
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 03-27-2014, 11:25 AM
Chris Garrity Chris Garrity is offline
SS/Veteran
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Posts: 2,145
Default Re: Triple Crown Thread for 2014

Whaddaya think of California Chrome, Doug? He's the favorite right now, and you can usually toss whichever horse is the favorite at this point. But I kinda like him, because his last race in the San Felipe was sensational -- it was extremely fast (107 Beyer), and it was jaw-droppingly impressive visually (he looked sensational, like a world-beater). I know we're supposed to downgrade speed horses running on the speed-favoring conveyor belt that is Santa Anita's dirt track, but I am more impressed by him than I usually am by the March Derby favorite.

There's also one more reason to pull for Cal Chrome: he's the last horse to win a stakes race at Hollywood Park. That's right: Hollywood Park, that beautiful old racetrack, where I spent most of my wayward twenties and where I cut my teeth as a handicapper, has been closed, and, alas, is no more. It would be appropriate, if only in a cosmic sense, if the horse who won the last stakes race ever run at the Track of the Lakes and Flowers goes on to win the Kentucky Derby. For that reason alone I'll be pulling for him.
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 03-27-2014, 09:47 PM
Doug Doug is offline
SS/Veteran
 
Join Date: Feb 1999
Location: Fair Hill, MD
Posts: 1,387
Default Re: Triple Crown Thread for 2014

I am not a fan yet of CC but he could change my mind if he wins the SA Derby from off the pace.

1. I don't see the pedigree in CC but I didn't go real deep.

2. I don't see the foundation races as a 2 year old that the KD winner usually has.

3. Unfortunately, the only race to compare his run with that day was won by Game On Dude who was 5 1/2 lengths faster at the mile marker. I did not watch any of the sprints that day but seeing a time of 1:14.78 in a 6 1/2 F Allowance race would seem to indicate a big speed bias. Will Take Charge would have beat Game On Dude on a more even track, I have no doubt about that. Still, it is unfair to CC to compare his race with the world's best Horses at this time.

4. Again, I didn't go real deep but it does not appear that any of the horses CC has been beating have turned into big winners in subsequent races. Good young horses usually run in Maiden races that become "key" races. He was only pressured by one horse in the San Felipe, the rest of the field was way, way back.

I'm trying to adapt to this point system of qualifying, seems like it is a bit unfair as it completely eliminates some of the unknown. People in the past would enter horses that qualified in hopes that the first Saturday in May might be the day the horse ran out of it's shoes. People now enter because they have the points, the Horses best interests, chances are not even considered in a lot of cases.

Now, you have more of a rivalry of the Big Bucks Boys, trainer's like Todd Pletcher who enters 4 to 5 horses who were bought running against the old schoolers, Big Bucks Breeders who breed and race their prodigy.


Doug
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 03-27-2014, 10:16 PM
Doug Doug is offline
SS/Veteran
 
Join Date: Feb 1999
Location: Fair Hill, MD
Posts: 1,387
Default Re: Triple Crown Thread for 2014

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris Garrity View Post
Hollywood Park, that beautiful old racetrack, where I spent most of my wayward twenties and where I cut my teeth as a handicapper, has been closed, and, alas, is no more. It would be appropriate, if only in a cosmic sense, if the horse who won the last stakes race ever run at the Track of the Lakes and Flowers goes on to win the Kentucky Derby. For that reason alone I'll be pulling for him.
Living 1/2 of a mile from Delaware Park for the majority of my childhood to young adult made it my home base for the longest time. The racing got cheap there as I aged and then it closed for a few years. Slots and simulcasting brought it back nicely and the racing got good again but they didn't learn. As others near them took on gambling the quality, size of fields, and now the racing days(no Sunday racing this year) has declined to the point that without the slots this beautiful plot of land would be a huge development project.

Maryland fought the gambling thing and even though it was finally approved, it became too late for them to save what is left of Horse Racing in that State. They opted for casinos instead of gambling only at the Race Tracks, 2 huge mistakes. The third huge mistake was allowing too many gambling facilities.

So, my now considered home track is Charlestown. Shippers come in for the bigger races, although the good betting races are few, the odds you can get on horses with a good chance are high a lot of times. If you are a smoker there is still inside areas you can puff away.

Chris, if you can get down my way this summer we have to spend a Saturday night there, the racing is still old time, the setting is new time, the fun level is what it used to be at DP.

Doug
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 03-27-2014, 11:56 PM
JoeG@Breezy JoeG@Breezy is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: New York
Posts: 561
Default Re: Triple Crown Thread for 2014

Been watching and betting ( small $) The Deby for about 50 years. Because I am now an expert, here's the secret...fastest horse will win !
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 03-30-2014, 01:01 PM
Doug Doug is offline
SS/Veteran
 
Join Date: Feb 1999
Location: Fair Hill, MD
Posts: 1,387
Default Re: Triple Crown Thread for 2014

I'm going to have to respectfully disagree with Joe even though he has me by a few years on the experience :-).

Horse racing is much like drag racing in that the fastest contestant does not always hit the wire first. As in drag racing there is a reaction time at the start so being left behind at the start is one way the fastest can lose.

Another way would be the outside horse who gets stuck 5 wide and has to run a farther distance. Say a post 12 horse gets stuck around the turn in a short sprint (5F with a short run to the turn) and the 1 horse gets the rail skimming ride. The 12 is going to have to run faster to get to the wire before the 1 since he may have added 10 or 20 yards of distance over the 1 horse.

Better stated would be that the horse with the fastest time always wins the race but! does not always mean he is the winner for the bettors. On rare occasion the horse is disqualified for interfering with another horse, rider accidentally hits other horse with whip, broke through gate early, etc.

Doug

PS - I'll try some fancy Algebra calculations to figure out the extra distances involved in being wide on a track.

Last edited by Doug : 03-30-2014 at 01:04 PM. Reason: Added PS
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 03-30-2014, 04:30 PM
Frank Daignault's Avatar
Frank Daignault Frank Daignault is offline
Writer, Hunter, Surfcaster
 
Join Date: Sep 1999
Location: Massachusetts
Posts: 30,458
Default Re: Triple Crown Thread for 2014

Logic tells me that the horse with the most inside starting position would have the advantage of a shorter run than those on the outside. If that is the case, the draw for positions determines the outcome. N'est pas?
__________________
Frank
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 03-30-2014, 06:39 PM
Doug Doug is offline
SS/Veteran
 
Join Date: Feb 1999
Location: Fair Hill, MD
Posts: 1,387
Default Re: Triple Crown Thread for 2014

Yes and no. Sometimes inside track is deep and slow, a good jockey will steer horse into the outside path if possible because it is the easier plod. But, it is not always possible to do that in the race.

Yes, more likely to in short races, especially young horses who have no concept of conserving energy. Biggest concern to 5 Furlong (5/8 mile) race may be to get in front early so Post is real important.

No, not usually a big deal in long races because there is more, ample time to find position that fits but, there are situations that this does not ring true.

Each racetrack keeps statistics on winners by post position, it really has no statistical significance until you get outside the 8 post. It basically is an industry standard that post position means nothing until you get outside of the 8. But, the Kentucky Derby is special, can anyone tell me the last "1" post horse to win the Derby!

Doug
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 03-30-2014, 07:59 PM
JoeG@Breezy JoeG@Breezy is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: New York
Posts: 561
Default Re: Triple Crown Thread for 2014

Some good points here, but other than being boxed in, the fastest horse barring disquailification, will git er done 99% of the time. Watch a track meet sometime. The milers and 5K guys/ladies look for a competitive start ( not quick necessarily ), then position, then wait to race. Almost all of the world's fastest times have been run this way with only a very few exceptions.
Hard part is figuring out which horse is fastest before you plunk down that moolah.
Reply With Quote
  #11  
Old 03-31-2014, 11:44 AM
Chris Garrity Chris Garrity is offline
SS/Veteran
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Posts: 2,145
Default Re: Triple Crown Thread for 2014

Quote:
Originally Posted by JoeG@Breezy View Post
Some good points here, but other than being boxed in, the fastest horse barring disquailification, will git er done 99% of the time. Watch a track meet sometime. The milers and 5K guys/ladies look for a competitive start ( not quick necessarily ), then position, then wait to race. Almost all of the world's fastest times have been run this way with only a very few exceptions.
Hard part is figuring out which horse is fastest before you plunk down that moolah.
Andrew Beyer once said that if parimutual wagering were allowed on Olympic track events, there'd be a lot of $2.80 payouts. The chalk there wins most of the time.

That's not the case with horses, though, because (duh) horses aren't humans.

It's actually not that hard to determine the fastest horse before a race. It usually doesn't take me more than 5 or 10 minutes to determine A) the horse with the most early speed, and B) the horse who is the fastest from start to finish (sometimes this is the same horse, but it's usually not). The problem is that the fastest horse doesn't even with the race most of the time -- they win around a third of the time.

There are a hundred reasons why the fastest horse doesn't usually win -- I'll post some of them when I have more time. If anyone cares, that is, and wants the digression from fishing.
Reply With Quote
  #12  
Old 03-31-2014, 01:50 PM
Frank Daignault's Avatar
Frank Daignault Frank Daignault is offline
Writer, Hunter, Surfcaster
 
Join Date: Sep 1999
Location: Massachusetts
Posts: 30,458
Default Re: Triple Crown Thread for 2014

A digression from fishing would be welcome. I get my coffee in the AM and write about fishing; then to escape my article writing I come here and write about fishing; then a guy from Jersey calls me to ask questions about fishing. I go into the bath for a dump and read Field and Stream .....duh, about fishing. I see the circle on my calandar and go fishing. Then, I go to the market and an old frfiend meets me and asks, "Frank, how is the fishing?" AT the bank the manager of my local branch of Bank of America sees my name and gets his copy of Striper Surf for me to sign. At bed time I try to clense my mind so that I won't dream but I still end up dreaming about .....you-know-what!
__________________
Frank
Reply With Quote
  #13  
Old 03-31-2014, 09:28 PM
JoeG@Breezy JoeG@Breezy is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: New York
Posts: 561
Default Re: Triple Crown Thread for 2014

I'm becoming Frank ! But without all of those 30',40, 50's and a wife who fished.
When I pass a landfill and see seagulls all over the sky I silently tell myself "birds working". I almost crash everytime I drive over a tidal creek on the Garden State or the Sunrise Highway.
Thankfully I have a great wife who understand that I'm going nuts.
My commitment to not overloading that all day barrage as in Ask Frank is that I will be less of a voice the minute the fish show up...that is if the ice ever melts.
Reply With Quote
  #14  
Old 03-31-2014, 11:06 PM
salmontogue salmontogue is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
Location: Maine
Posts: 293
Default Re: Triple Crown Thread for 2014

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris Garrity View Post
Andrew Beyer once said that if parimutual wagering were allowed on Olympic track events, there'd be a lot of $2.80 payouts. The chalk there wins most of the time.

That's not the case with horses, though, because (duh) horses aren't humans.

It's actually not that hard to determine the fastest horse before a race. It usually doesn't take me more than 5 or 10 minutes to determine A) the horse with the most early speed, and B) the horse who is the fastest from start to finish (sometimes this is the same horse, but it's usually not). The problem is that the fastest horse doesn't even with the race most of the time -- they win around a third of the time.

There are a hundred reasons why the fastest horse doesn't usually win -- I'll post some of them when I have more time. If anyone cares, that is, and wants the digression from fishing.
I would enjoy the horse racing comments while enjoying draft from my new kegerator. You helped me on that topic too.

DP
__________________
"If there were fish in the lake, fishing would make no sense" Lech Walesa
Reply With Quote
  #15  
Old 04-01-2014, 10:34 AM
SALMONMEISTER SALMONMEISTER is online now
SS/Veteran
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: NY
Posts: 1,789
Default Re: Triple Crown Thread for 2014

A betting strategy given to me by a friend (who used to bet way too much/often):
Watch them walking the horses beforehand...bet on the last one that poops. He said that actually seem to work more often than you'd think!
Reply With Quote
Reply


Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On
Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Triple Crown Thread for 2013 Doug Ask Frank Daignault 55 06-09-2013 04:08 PM
Triple Crown - 2012 Chris Garrity Ask Frank Daignault 70 06-13-2012 11:47 AM
Triple Crown - 2011 Chris Garrity Ask Frank Daignault 66 06-13-2011 11:24 AM
Triple Crown Stuff -- 2010 Chris Garrity Ask Frank Daignault 53 11-06-2010 09:29 AM
Triple Crown Stuff Frank Daignault Ask Frank Daignault 16 09-08-2009 11:53 AM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 06:16 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.6
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright 1998 - 2016 StriperSurf.com, All Rights Reserved