thankfully its been a quiet season, but that can change and we are not out of the woods (apology for the mixed metaphore) until November!!
A tropical wave (91L)
that emerged from the coast of Africa on Sunday is headed west to west-northwest at about 15 mph. Satellite images
show 91L has a moderate amount of spin and heavy thunderstorm activity, but these thunderstorms are poorly organized. The disturbance is embedded in a moist air mass, has moderately warm (SSTs) of 27.5?C (82?F) beneath it, and is experiencing light wind shear. These conditions favor development. The 8 am EDT Monday run of the SHIPS model
predicted that wind shear would remain light to moderate ( 5 - 15 knots) for the next five days, favoring continued development. However, development will be slowed by the fact that the atmosphere at mid-levels of the atmosphere (between 500 - 700 mb) should grow steadily grow drier. Two of our three reliable computer models for predicting tropical storm formation predict development of 91L over the next five days. In their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system 2-day and 5-day odd of development odds of 30% and 60%, respectively. A trough of low pressure expected to push off the U.S. East Coast early next week should induce a more northwesterly track for 91L next week, and the disturbance does not appear to be a long-range threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands. It remains to be seen if 91L will be a long-range threat to Bermuda, the U.S. East Coast, or the Canadian Maritime Provinces late next week.
MODIS satellite image of tropical wave 91L off the coast of Africa at approximately 8 am EDT Monday September 8, 2014. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.